The Catalyst

AEVA absolutely ripped to fresh 52-week highs today on a killer one-two punch of news. First, they nailed their TISAX AL2 certification—that’s the golden ticket for doing business with auto manufacturers. Then boom, they dropped news of breaking into the smart city market with their first ITS contract.

The stock went absolutely ballistic. We’re talking about a 500% runner year-to-date that just keeps finding new legs.

Why This Matters

Here’s the deal with TISAX—without it, you’re basically locked out of the automotive supplier game. Every major car manufacturer demands this security certification before they’ll even look at you. AEVA just cleared that hurdle.

But the real kicker? They’re not putting all their eggs in the automotive basket. That Sensys Gatso Australia contract for speed cameras shows they’re attacking multiple revenue streams. Smart money loves optionality, and AEVA just proved they have it.

Technical Setup

This thing has been on an absolute tear since January. We’re talking about a stock that was left for dead at $5 and now it’s knocking on $30’s door. That’s not normal price action—that’s institutional accumulation at its finest.

What caught my eye on the daily:

  • Blasted through $28 resistance like it wasn’t even there
  • Volume went nuts—42.5% above average (institutions piling in)
  • 500% YTD gain and still accelerating (momentum begets momentum)
  • Picture-perfect uptrend channel—every dip getting bought aggressively

Today’s Price Action

Gap and go from the bell. No morning dip for the bears—just straight-up buying pressure all day. Hit $31.25 at the highs before the profit-takers showed up around $30. Classic breakout behavior.

AEVA Stock Chart Analysis: AEVA 5-minute chart showing sustained buying pressure and breakout above $30 - June 24, 2025

Intraday Highlights

  • 9:30 AM: Gap and go! Opened at $28.13 and buyers jumped all over it
  • 10:00 AM: First assault on $29.50—volume started exploding here
  • 10:30 AM: BOOM! Cracked $30 and the algos went wild
  • 10:50 AM: Tagged $31.25—shorts getting absolutely destroyed
  • 1:00 PM: Healthy consolidation right at $30—buyers defending hard
  • 4:00 PM: Closed strong at $29.97 (+9.7%)—bulls in complete control

Volume Analysis

Volume tells the whole story here. 3.2 million shares traded—that’s 42.5% above average. The real tell? Most of that volume hit during the morning surge through $30. That’s not retail—that’s institutions loading the boat.

The TISAX Certification Impact

TISAX AL2 certification is not just a checkbox - it’s a game-changer for AEVA’s business prospects:

  • OEM Readiness: Major automotive manufacturers require TISAX certification from suppliers
  • Security Standards: Demonstrates ability to protect sensitive automotive data
  • Competitive Advantage: Positions AEVA ahead of competitors still seeking certification
  • Global Reach: Opens doors to European and Asian OEMs with strict security requirements

ITS Market Entry

The Sensys Gatso Australia contract represents AEVA’s strategic expansion into smart city applications:

  • Market Diversification: Reduces dependence on automotive OEM cycles
  • Immediate Revenue: ITS projects typically have faster deployment timelines
  • Safety Impact: AEVA’s 4D LiDAR will help combat speeding, a factor in 40% of Australian traffic fatalities
  • Scalability: Success in Australia could lead to similar contracts globally

Trading Strategy

This setup is screaming momentum continuation. Here’s how I’m playing it:

Entry Points

  • Aggressive: Buying any dip to $29.50-30.00 zone (classic breakout retest)
  • Conservative: Let it prove itself above $30 for a couple days first

Risk Management

  • Stop Loss: $28.50 or bust (below this morning’s gap—no excuses)
  • Position Size: This is a volatile small-cap—size accordingly or get burned

Profit Targets

  • First Target: $32.50 (measured move says we hit this fast)
  • Second Target: $35.00 (big round number resistance)
  • Final Target: $40.00 (moon shot but possible in this market)

Key Levels to Watch

  • Support: $30.00 (psychological), $29.00 (intraday support), $28.00 (breakout level)
  • Resistance: $31.25 (today’s high), $35.00 (next major level)
  • Stop Loss: $28.50 (below today’s opening)

Fundamental Catalysts Ahead

  • Q2 Earnings: Expected to show progress on OEM engagements
  • Additional ITS Contracts: Management hinted at pipeline opportunities
  • OEM Design Wins: TISAX certification could accelerate announcements
  • Technology Updates: Next-gen sensor improvements expected

The Bottom Line

Listen, when a stock rips to 52-week highs on legit news (not pump and dump garbage), you pay attention. AEVA just checked two massive boxes—TISAX cert opens the OEM floodgates, and that ITS contract proves they’re not a one-trick pony.

Chart’s absolutely gorgeous too. Clean breakout, monster volume, closed at the highs. That’s not a one-day wonder—that’s the start of something bigger.

What to Watch Tomorrow

  • Can it hold $30 in pre-market? That’s your tell
  • Volume needs to stay juiced—dead volume = dead momentum
  • Watch for upgrades—analysts love to chase winners
  • Any sympathy moves in other LiDAR names (LAZR, INVZ, OUST)
  • If big money keeps buying, we see $35 by Friday

This is the kind of setup you dream about—real catalyst, technical breakout, and momentum on your side. Don’t overthink it.