The Catalyst

The gold giant NEM exploded 6.9% today to $65.75 after dropping a solid earnings report that had traders scrambling to get in. With adjusted EPS of $1.43 smashing the $1.30-ish consensus and revenue jumping 20.1% year-over-year to $5.32 billion, this was the kind of beat that gets momentum traders excited.

Why This Matters

The combination of operational excellence and capital return is exactly what the market wanted to see. Newmont isn’t just riding the gold wave—they’re executing flawlessly. CEO Tom Palmer highlighted the company produced 1.5 million attributable gold ounces while generating an all-time record quarterly free cash flow of $1.7 billion. That’s not a typo—$1.7 billion in free cash flow in a single quarter!

The $3 billion buyback announcement is the cherry on top. With the stock trading well below its 52-week high of $85, management is putting that massive cash flow to work buying back shares at attractive levels. This signals serious confidence in the business and creates a strong bid under the stock.

What really caught traders’ attention was the realized gold price of $3,320 per ounce—nearly $1,000 higher than last year. With gold breaking out to new highs and central banks continuing their buying spree, NEM is perfectly positioned to print money.

Technical Setup

The stock had been consolidating in a tight range between $58 and $64 for the past six weeks, building energy for this move. Today’s breakout cleared multiple resistance levels with authority, and the volume surge confirms institutions are piling in.

Key observations from the daily chart:

  • Clean break above the $64 resistance that held since early June
  • Volume exploded to 29 million shares, over double the average
  • RSI pushed into overbought territory but momentum remains strong
  • Next major resistance sits at the psychological $70 level

Is NEM Stock a Buy After Earnings Breakout?

With gold in a secular bull market and NEM demonstrating operational excellence, the setup looks compelling. The combination of rising gold prices, expanding margins, and aggressive capital returns creates multiple ways to win. Smart money is betting this earnings catalyst kicks off the next leg higher.

Today’s Price Action

The opening bell saw immediate buying pressure as traders digested the earnings beat. NEM gapped up at the open and never looked back, establishing an intraday low of $63.36 before grinding higher throughout the session.

NEM Stock Chart Analysis: NEM 5-minute chart showing steady accumulation after earnings gap with strong close near highs - July 25, 2025

Volume Analysis

Volume tells the real story here—29 million shares changed hands, absolutely crushing the 10-day average of 13.8 million. The morning surge saw institutional-sized blocks printing left and right, with several 500K+ share prints hitting the tape. This wasn’t retail FOMO; this was big money positioning.

The volume profile shows heaviest activity between $64-65, creating a strong support zone. Late-day volume remained elevated, suggesting this move has legs.

Earnings Breakdown

The numbers speak for themselves:

  • EPS: $1.43 vs $1.30 consensus (10% beat)
  • Revenue: $5.32 billion vs $5.26 billion expected
  • Gold Sales: Surged 26.5% to $4.58 billion
  • Free Cash Flow: Record $1.7 billion (not a typo!)
  • Realized Gold Price: $3,320/oz, up nearly $1,000 YoY

Management’s tone was notably bullish, with CEO Palmer emphasizing the company’s “strong performance” and positioning for continued success. The $3 billion buyback authorization on top of the existing program shows they’re backing up the talk with action.

What Price Target for NEM Stock?

Technical targets point to $70 as the first major level, with the 200-day moving average at $72 as the next magnet. If gold continues its march higher, the previous high near $85 comes into play. The buyback provides a floor, making dips attractive entry points.

Trading Strategy

For traders looking to play the momentum:

Entry Points

  • Aggressive: Current levels around $65-66 with tight stops
  • Conservative: Wait for a pullback to the $63-64 breakout zone
  • Scale-in approach: Start positions here, add on any morning dip

Risk Management

The breakout level at $64 now becomes support. A close below $63 would negate the bullish thesis short-term.

When to Take Profits on NEM?

  • First target: $70 psychological level (partial profits)
  • Second target: $72 (200-day MA)
  • Runner target: $78-80 zone

Where to Place Stop Loss for NEM?

  • Tight stop: $63.50 (below today’s low)
  • Wider stop: $62 (below recent consolidation)
  • Trailing approach: Move stops to breakeven above $68

Gold Market Dynamics

The macro backdrop couldn’t be better for gold miners. Central banks continue their gold buying spree, with China and other emerging markets diversifying away from dollars. Real rates remain negative in many countries, and geopolitical tensions keep the fear trade alive.

NEM’s leverage to gold prices means every $100 move in gold drops straight to the bottom line. With production costs relatively stable and gold prices surging, margins are expanding rapidly.

NEM vs Other Gold Miners Comparison

Compared to peers like Barrick (GOLD) and Agnico Eagle (AEM), NEM offers:

  • Larger production scale with 1.5M oz quarterly
  • Superior free cash flow generation
  • More aggressive shareholder returns via buybacks
  • Better geographic diversification

What to Watch

  • Gold price action: Every $50 move in gold impacts EPS by roughly $0.20
  • Fed commentary: Dovish Fed means higher gold, bullish for NEM
  • Production updates: Any positive revisions to guidance would fuel another leg up
  • Buyback execution: Watch for 10b5-1 filings indicating active repurchases

NEM Stock Forecast Next Quarter

With gold momentum strong and operations firing on all cylinders, NEM could easily see $75+ by next earnings. The buyback creates a synthetic short squeeze as the float shrinks while demand rises. If gold breaks $2,500, all bets are off to the upside.

The Bottom Line

NEM delivered exactly what bulls wanted—operational excellence, massive cash generation, and aggressive capital returns. The stock’s 6.9% surge on double normal volume confirms institutions are accumulating positions for the next leg higher.

With gold in a secular bull market and NEM demonstrating best-in-class execution, this breakout has room to run. The $3 billion buyback provides downside support while rising gold prices offer unlimited upside potential. For traders willing to ride the volatility, NEM offers one of the cleaner setups in the materials sector.

Should I Buy NEM Stock Now?

The technical breakout combined with fundamental catalysts creates a compelling risk/reward. Smart money is betting this earnings-driven move is just the beginning of a larger trend. With multiple ways to win—higher gold prices, expanding margins, and buyback support—NEM belongs on every momentum trader’s watchlist.